Pauls Ramble
May 06, 2022
Greeting from Valley United Co-op!
We continue to stumble into Spring ’22. We are in the 1st week in May and no farmer has turned a wheel in our trade area. April was the wettest on record in Grand Forks with over 6 inches of moisture. But there is some hope. Warmer & drier conditions are forecast and there is some talk about MAYBE some farmers are going to try fieldwork this weekend. We’ll see………………….Nobody at Valley United wants to be around me lately! I want (need) spring season start and yes, I know it will come, and we will be busy!
During a challenging spring like this one, the struggle affects our disposition and not in a good way. One huge positive in my mood/outlook is being a grandparent. I have 7 grandchildren aged 16 down to 4 years. While they have some knowledge of what their grandpa does, my most important job is making malts, playing games, watching movies, and spoiling them. When you’re a parent, life is full of busy schedules, career goals, and financial instability. Grandparents can enjoy the smaller moments with their grandkids. There is more time to just enjoy the moment. It’s amazing what a slow walk to the park with a 4-year-old will do to help my “mood”. Grandkids will help you stop and smell the roses, sometimes literally, distracting you from some of your everyday stresses such as markets, weather, health issues and more.
New month, new week. With that, we also have new daily trading limits. Starting May 1st, corn will be 50 cents (was 35 cents), soybeans at $1.15 (previously 90 cents), Chicago and KC wheat at 70 cents (was 60 cents). Note, Minneapolis wheat futures remain at a 60-cent daily limit.
National corn planting progress doubled to 14% complete this week, still behind 42% last year and the 33% five-year average pace. Soybean planting advanced from 3% to 8% done, behind 22% LY and the 13% 5YA, with spring wheat planting up from 13% to 19% this week, down from 46% LY and the 28% 5YA.North Dakota is 5% seeded. Winter wheat condition ratings unchanged at 27% g/ex, vs 49% LY and the 51% 5YA
Much needed moisture arrived across the Plains this past weekend. However, it's important to understand the current stages of the US winter wheat crop. First, Texas and a large part of Oklahoma are only a few weeks away from harvest which means any moisture would be too late to benefit the crop. Kansas, on the other hand, will see the crop benefit from recent rains. Overall, despite the recent moisture, crop conditions are expected to show little improvement on next week’s ratings. Unfortunately, extended forecasts don’t look encouraging with winter wheat areas remaining dry and cool/wet conditions expected in the upper Midwest.
Other areas of the world are also dealing with extreme weather that is impacting wheat production. After five record crops, India’s wheat production is expected to fall 6% due to hot and dry conditions. In fact, the country experienced its warmest March in 122 years. Even though India is the world's second largest wheat producer, only a small amount is exported. Global supplies remain tight which is supportive.
Ukraine’s grain trader union reports that farmers planted 31% of “expected” area thus far. The expected area is down nearly a quarter from 2021 due to the war, so they have planted 31% of the reduced area to this point. Spring planting progress to this point includes 180K hectares of spring wheat, according to UGA, along with 844K hectares of spring barley and 1.274 million hectares of corn. This year’s corn area is expected to total 3.9 million hectares, down 28% from the previous year due to the Russian invasion. Crops are being planted despite shortages of fertilizers and other products needed to maximize yield potential, with farmers wearing protective armor while in the fields, in many cases. The farmers fear that they will not have sufficient storage for the harvest, with exports through the ports are expected to remain shut down until at least this fall, if the war were to end today, which it isn’t. Meanwhile, we continue to see reports of Russia targeting ports and other infrastructure, along with the intent of damaging or confiscating tractors and grain storage.
The Fed announced a half-point interest rate increase, which is the largest interest rate increase in 22 years.
Locally our current prices: Corn is $7.45, soybeans are at $15.65 and Spring wheat is $11.27. New Crop: Soybeans are $14.37, Corn is $6.70, and wheat is $11.07.
This Sunday (May 8th) is Mother’s Day. Please treat your mother to Brunch, send flowers, a card, or an absolute minimum, call her. Tell her how much she means to you. She is waiting!
Here’s a few quotes on our “Mom’s Influence” in our lives. I think we can all relate to quite a few of these!
My mother taught me TO APPRECIATE A JOB WELL DONE.
"If you're going to kill each other, do it outside. I just finished cleaning."
My mother taught me RELIGION.
"You better pray that will come out of the carpet."
My mother taught me about TIME TRAVEL.
"If you don't straighten up, I'm going to knock you into the middle of next week!"
My mother taught me LOGIC.
" Because I said so, that's why."
My mother taught me FORESIGHT.
"Make sure you wear clean underwear, in case you're in an accident."
My mother taught me IRONY
"Keep crying, and I'll give you something to cry about."
My mother taught me about CONTORTIONISM.
"Will you look at that dirt on the back of your neck!"
My mother taught me about STAMINA.
"You'll sit there until all that spinach is gone."
My mother taught me about HYPOCRISY.
"If I told you once, I've told you a million times. Don't exaggerate!"
My mother taught me the CIRCLE OF LIFE.
"I brought you into this world, and I can take you out."
My mother taught me about BEHAVIOR MODIFICATION.
"Stop acting like your father!"
My mother taught me about ANTICIPATION.
"Just wait until your dad gets home."
My mother taught me HUMOR.
"When that lawn mower cuts off your toes, don't come running to me."
My mother taught me HOW TO BECOME AN ADULT.
"If you don't eat your vegetables, you'll never grow up."
My mother taught me about my ROOTS.
"Shut that door behind you. Do you think you were born in a barn?"
My mother taught me WISDOM.
"When you get to be my age, you'll understand."
And my favorite: My mother taught me about JUSTICE.
"One day you'll have kids, and I hope they turn out just like you.”
Paul
"Worry is like a rocking chair: it keeps you moving but doesn't get you anywhere."
-Paul Coppin
